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Leading Indicators: Labor Market To Stay Soft in April 2008

The SHRM/Rutgers LEADING INDICATORS OF NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT® (LINE®) survey includes firms from the manufacturing and private service-providing sectors. Combined, they account for more than 90 percent of the US private-sector employment. Recent surveys indicate that the labor market will remain soft in April 2008 and be weaker than the labor market was in April 2007. Employment numbers are sharply down in both the manufacturing and service sectors.

  • EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS DOWN: Compared with April 2007, this index dropped 10.7 points for manufacturing and 12.6 points for the service sector in April 2008, indicating that far fewer new hires will be made in April.
  • NEW-HIRE COMPENSATION GROWTH SLOWS: The rate of compensation growth increased modestly within the manufacturing sector, but within the much larger service sector, it fell to its lowest level since that series was initiated in May 2005. This is in-line with the slower employment growth expected in April, particularly for the service sector.
  • RECRUITING DIFFICULTY AT LOWEST LEVEL IN YEARS: The recruiting difficulty indices for manufacturing and service sectors are at the lowest March level since each series was initiated in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

The employment expectations index from the SHRM/Rutgers LEADING INDICATORS OF NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT (LINE) is released approximately five weeks before the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS).

For a complete overview, visit http://www.shrm.org/line/CMS_025065.pdf

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